Fun with Probability

Fun with Statistics

In probability theory, the Poisson distribution is used to model rare, discrete events. Discrete means either finite or countably infinite, like for example the natural numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, etc... So I was thinking to myself, hmm, discrete, rare events, what does this remind me of... Of course! My love life! Based on my previous experience I estimated the rate constant to be 1/9 and calculated the following probabilities:

Chances of having a gf before I turn 25: 32%
Chances of having a gf before I turn 30: 59%
Chances of beating Steve Carrell's character from a popular movie in doing the deed: 88%
Length of time such that I have a 95% chance of having a gf: 27 years.

So I can say with 95% confidence that I will have a girlfriend before I am 48. In a way that's encouraging because it is very likely that it will happen eventually, but at the same time discouraging because I might be in for a long wait. My brother suggested that if I put a prior distribution on the rate constant, possibly a Gamma Distribution, and proceeded with a full Bayesian analysis that I might be able to bring my 95% confidence interval down a bit, but I was forced to fly out to Cornell and kick his grad student ass for taking the joke too far.